“The higher the vaccination rate, the higher the excess mortality”
From Mario Martin
The physicist Dr. Ute Bergner , who formerly belonged to the FDP parliamentary group in the Thuringian state parliament, has meanwhile switched to the “Citizens for Thuringia” party, held on November 17. A speech in front of the Thuringian state parliament in which she presented an analysis she had commissioned .
She commissioned two statisticians to investigate whether there was a connection between the vaccination rate and excess mortality in the 16 federal states.
Here the speech in two parts:
summary of results
Prof. Dr. Rolf Steyer and Dr. Gregor Kappler analyzed the period from week 36 to week 40.
The results are alarming. The summary of the analysis states:
Excess mortality can be found in all 16 countries. The number of Covid deaths reported by the RKI in the period under review consistently only represents a relatively small part of the excess mortality and above all cannot explain the critical issue:
The higher the vaccination rate, the higher the excess mortality.
The most direct explanation is:
･ Complete vaccination increases the likelihood of death.
Of course, more indirect explanations are possible:
･ The higher the proportion of old people, the higher the vaccination rate and excess mortality. Therefore, the vaccination rate and excess mortality also correlate. (This explanation is not very plausible, however, as the proportion of old people would have to have changed significantly between 2016-2020 on the one hand and 2021 on the other.)
･ Higher vaccination rates are achieved through increased stress and anxiety in the country concerned, and the latter lead to higher numbers of deaths.
Further explanations are by no means excluded. Some of them may be backed up with numbers and should be investigated further. We are very grateful for suggestions of this kind.
The statistical evaluation gives the following picture: The y-axis shows the excess mortality in percent. For example, 110.0 stands for an excess mortality of 10%. 100.0 means no excess mortality and marks the average from 2016 to 2020. The x-axis shows the state’s vaccination rate in percent.
ADDENDUM: One reader expressed a legitimate criticism of the analysis: excess mortality would not have been adjusted for demographic characteristics. The comparison with the excess mortality of previous years would therefore be blurred. The point of criticism was passed on to the authors of the work. If the effect is to be built in, it will be added here.
Thuringia (4%) and Saxony (2%), the two countries with the lowest vaccination rates, also have the lowest excess mortality. The front runner is Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania with a vaccination rate of 66% and an excess mortality rate of 16%. The larger federal states are all in the range of an excess mortality of 10% with vaccination rates of 66 to 71%.
Results require ‘urgent clarification’
For the statisticians among you: The correlation coefficient is +0.31. In the eyes of the two scientists this is “astonishingly high”. Especially since the sign is wrong. Actually, we expect a different relationship: the more vaccinations, the lower the mortality. After all, the intention of the “vaccination” is to protect people.
Now the connection is positive: “The excess mortality increases with the increase in the vaccination rate”. This requires urgent clarification, demand the two statisticians. Furthermore, in view of “the pending political measures aimed at containing the virus […] this figure is worrying and requires explanation if further political measures are to be taken with the aim of increasing the vaccination rate”.
The study was handed over to the Thuringian state parliament for assessment.
At the end of her speech, Ute Bergner emphasized: “A person’s worth does not depend on their vaccination status.” It is frightening that it has become necessary to say such things as a matter of course.
How these results come about should now be answered by politicians. Experience shows: The hope of obtaining logical answers from politics in relation to such a situation and the resulting questions is probably in vain.
Excess mortality among 15 to 44 year olds
At this point we would like to take a look at the current excess mortality among 15 to 44-year-olds in Germany. The following graph shows the mortality trend over the past few years. In the red circle we see the year 2021, which almost consistently shows excess mortality among 15 to 44-year-olds. Usually the graph fluctuates much more between under- and excess mortality. Not so this year (red ellipse on the right).
Last year we had an excess mortality of 3,000 deaths, this year the excess mortality is almost 5,000 deaths.
An overview of the vaccine side effects provided via the EudraVigilance database (as of November 12, 2021) can be found here .